We Need to Talk About Europe
Leaving the European Union would save every Dutch household 9,800 a year by
2035, claims Capital Economics, a London consultancy, in a report commissioned by
Geert Wilders' far-right PVV party. Mr. Wilders calls this “the best news in years”,
painting a picture of a country freed from the choke hold of Brussels, mass migration and
high taxes, and enjoying more trade, more jobs and a booming economy.
The report lists the benefits of departure, or “Nexit”:lower business costs because
of less regulation; no more net payments to the EU; a doubling of the share of trade with
emerging markets; faster economic recovery. The only cost is the transition from the euro
to a new guilder, and this is “modest and manageable” . The report concludes that Dutch
GDP would be 10-13% higher by 2035.
This finds a receptive audience among those Dutch who are looking for scapegoats.
Unemployment has doubled since 2008 and the economy is flat. A recent poll finds a
majority of Dutch voters in favour of leaving the EU if that would lead to more jobs and
growth. The PVV is leading in opinion polls before the European elections in May.
Yet there are problems with the Capital Economics report. The idea that the
economy would miraculously recover if freed from the European Central Bank's policies
ignores the structural failings that hold it back. The assumption that having the guilder
would allow a much looser monetary policy is, at best, questionable.And it defies political
reality to imagine that the post-Nexit Netherlands would enjoy virtually cost-free access
to the EU's single market, which takes 75% of Dutch exports. Norway and Switzerland
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